The number of people in residential aged care facilities with Alzheimer’s disease is expected to increase by 72 per cent over the next 20 years, with numbers reaching more than 73,000 in 2041.
That statistic features in a new report from the University of Canberra which reveals the societal impact of Alzheimer’s disease on Australia’s aged care workforce, people with dementia, families and communities.
“An increasing number of people with moderate or severe dementia will put significant pressure on aged care facilities,” lead author Emeritus Professor Laurie Brown from the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling told Australian Ageing Agenda.
“These individuals have high-tier needs,” said Professor Brown. This, she added, will have a considerable effect on the workforce. “What will have to happen is a closer inspection of the workforce and the requirements for increasing the numbers of paid carers who are working in residential aged care,” she said.
The report – The Economic and Societal Cost of Alzheimer’s Disease in Australia 2021-2041 – also factors in the financial impact of a steep rise in cases of AD. For example, the cost of residential aged care for people with Alzheimer’s in 2021 was estimated to be $4 billion; by 2041 it is projected to reach $6.8 billion.
Is Australia prepared for the impacts of AD?
“One of the motivations behind this report is to help inform that preparedness,” said Professor Brown. “If we have an understanding of a likely increase in numbers and the associated need for help in aged care services, then we can look towards preparing the workforce.”
As well as being prepared, we’ve got to try to reduce people’s risk of developing dementia in the first place, said Professor Brown. “So that’s trying to maintain good brain health,” she said. That means mental and physical exercise, social participation and eating well.
There are also treatments in the pipeline that may prevent or reduce the rate of progression of AD. “There’s the possibility that disease-modifying therapies could do that,” said Professor Brown. One such drug – aducanumab – is currently under review by the Therapeutic Goods Administration. If given the green light, it could be available in Australia later this year.
Professor Brown’s report addresses the impact disease-modifying therapies may have on AD cases in the future. By 2041, the report estimates that – with treatment – there could be 4,600 fewer people living in residential care with Alzheimer’s disease.
That’s why, Dementia Australia CEO Maree McCabe told AAA, last year’s Government investment in dementia and aged care reform was so critical. “What we need into the future is a bipartisan approach, a long-term commitment to improve services, to invest heavily in research, and increase our understanding about dementia and Alzheimer’s disease and how to reduce our risk,” she said.
Dementia is the second leading cause of death in Australia. There are around 100 forms of dementia; AD is the most common, affecting 75 per cent of all people aged 65 and above who have dementia.
According to the UC report, overall, the number of people aged 50 and over diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease in Australia is expected to increase by 73 per cent from 153,888 in 2021 to 266,114 by 2041.
“One of the most amazing accomplishments with modern medicine is our increase in longevity but it does bring with it one of our greatest challenges – and that is dementia and Alzheimer’s disease,” said Ms McCabe. “Certainly, the skyrocketing numbers will have a major impact on our community and our health system at large.”
We are headed for a future where “there won’t be anybody in Australia that won’t know somebody who is living with dementia or Alzheimer’s disease,” she said. “We need to look at our health system generally, our infrastructure at large and how we’re going to support the larger number of older Australians who will be living with Alzheimer’s disease into the future.”
Main image: a brain showing signs of Alzheimer’s disease
Comment on the story below. Follow Australian Ageing Agenda on LinkedIn, X (Twitter) and Facebook, sign up to our twice-weekly newsletter and subscribe to our premium content or AAA magazine for the complete aged care picture.
