Demographic forecasts for 2031

A recent ABS report has predicted that in 2031 most people aged over 85 years will live in their own home.

By 2031, the majority of older people aged 85 years and over will live independently in their own home, a new Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report has predicted.

More people aged over 85 years old will live in retirement villages, hostels and nursing homes, although the percentage of older people in this group will decline over the next 20 years. 

The report also estimated that between now and 2031, there will be an increase in the number of older lone person households, as well as a rise in live-in baby boomer couples.

“Almost two-thirds of the increase in lone person households between 2006 and 2031, is projected to be among people aged 60 years and over,” the report stated.

“In 2006, the peak age for people living alone was 55–59 years. In 2031, this is projected to have shifted to 80–84 years.

“At older ages (60 years and over), women are projected to drive the growth in lone person households, with a projected growth rate of 2.8 per cent per year…There will be 1.1 million older women (aged 60 years and over) living alone in 2031, up from 0.6 million in 2006, and representing over three-fifths of the number of older people living alone.”

The ABS report predicts the expected change in household and living arrangements in 2031, due to the rapid ageing of the Australian population.

“An ageing population may put more emphasis on single person accommodation, in particular for older people, as well as on health, caring and support services for older people living alone,” the report said. 

“Meanwhile, the projected increase in family households may continue demand for family accommodation and allied services.”

The report explained that the increase in the number of woman living on their own as being mostly due to widowhood.

However, the senior economic adviser for Deloitte, Henry Ergas, expects that, in the future, the duration of widowhood will shrink.

“The gap in life expectancy between men and women is declining and as a result the number of years a woman spends as a widow is declining,” said Mr Ergas.

“For example, if you go back to the 1970s, a woman might expect to have 10 years of widowhood. By the end of this decade probably, the gap may be down to two years.”

Mr Ergas predicts that, as the population ages and the number of women aged over 60 increases, the total number of widows will also rise. This, he said, could explain the ABS’ prediction of a growth in the number of older lone-person households.

“You will physically be dealing with people getting to widowhood later, as well as shorter periods of time spent as a widow because of the difference in the life expectancy between men and women.”
 

Tags: 2031, abs, aged-care, ageing-population, community-care, deloitte, henry-ergas, older-people,

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