Living longer, living better?
The aged care system of the future will be further strained, with morbidity rates predicted to increase as people live longer. Senior economist, Professor Henry Ergas, makes his demographic predictions for tomorrow.
More pressure will be placed on the aged care system of the future with morbidity rates set to rise and life expectancies to continue to increase to an all time high, a leading Australian economist has predicted.
Senior economic advisor for Deloitte, Professor Henry Ergas, presented an economic perspective on the changing demographics of the ageing population at The 6th Annual Ageing Population Summit in Sydney yesterday.
Professor Ergas predicted that in the coming years, life expectancy will initially increase more rapidly than expectations of healthy living, with people living for longer but being sicker.
“It’s an important hypothesis that has big implications for everything to do with an ageing population,” Professor Ergas said.
“As life expectancy rises, the proportion of the population that has a distribution of very high ages will increase.
“The evidence of significant and sustained compression of morbidity is more contentious [but we know that] many of the elderly will experience many years of disability.”
Professor Ergas explained the future ageing trend with a three phase model of longevity. In the first phase of his hypothesis, the first healthy person will live to 110 years old.
“The first people to make it to 110 years old are the least vulnerable of the causes of death,” he said.
“Phase two is where other people survive to the same age of 110 years old. They haven’t been selected due to underlying fitness levels but because they have been the beneficiaries of changes in longevity, income and other changes which allow morbidity to be postponed. So the average incidence of morbidity will change.”
The final phase, number three, will see a large percentage of the population live to 110 years old.
“[By this stage], we understand how to deal with changes in morbidity and as the population increases we increase research and investments in health. At that point and only at that point, do you get a reduction back in morbidity.
“But at that point you are dealing with a greater population. For example, 60 per cent of the cohort will be aged 110 years.”
He predicted that this trend will result in more pressure being placed on the aged care system, as morbidity levels and longevity rates are key determinates of whether a person will need to access aged care and for how long they will stay at a facility.
“Aged care is a small niche in the health care system and that niche is something that many people will never have contact with in their lifetime.
“But what you will see as the population increases is that there are more people in their 90s.
“Aged care will become more like secondary schools as everyone comes in the cohort will access the system.”
Professor Ergas’ economic hypothesis has been supported by figures released today which state that Australians are living longer than ever before, with the death rate now the lowest level ever recorded.
An Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) report shows the nation’s life expectancy is one of the highest in the world and is continuing to rise.
“Assuming current death rates, a boy born today can expect to live an average of 79.3 years, while a girl can expect to live to 83.9 years,” the ABS said.
“Having survived to age 60, men could expect to live another 23 years and women another 26 years.
“Since 1989, life expectancy has increased by six years for men and just over four years for women, reflecting the decrease in death rates over time. The increase in life expectancy is one of the factors contributing to the ageing of Australia’s population.”
