Valuable insight into ageing population
Detailed population projections by age, gender and locality are listed publicly on the department’s website.
Valuable data on the characteristics of Australia’s ageing population is hidden on the Department of Health and Ageing’s website.
Prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the projections show the number of people by age and gender, who are expected to be living in Australia’s 70 largest local government areas over the next 20 years.
KPMG demographer Bernard Salt who wrote about the predictions in his column for The Australian, said it was the first time he had seen this type of data compiled at a national level.
“There have been all sorts of forecasts produced previously by age and sex according to locality but they were conducted at state level,” Mr Salt said.
“And the problem was that when you added them all up they didn’t match up with the national forecasts.
“But now the national figures are there in public domain where you can manipulate them and find the data that is relevant to you.”
An analysis by Mr Salt of the migration trends of the baby boomers in the 14 years to 2021 showed that ‘seachange’ migration patterns are likely to continue in that age group.
The locality set to experience the biggest growth in the baby boomer population in that period is Hervey Bay in Queensland, closely followed by Tweed Heads in NSW.
At the same time, the middle and outer suburbs of the larger metropolitan centres are likely to experience a decline in the proportion of boomers.
Mr Salt said this type of information could be “extremely valuable” for aged care planning.
“It identifies the hotspots – the areas where service delivery will be likely to come under stress,” he said.
The projections are based on recent migration patterns and according to Mr Salt, they are unlikely to undergo rapid change.
